End of EU-Trade Liberalisation with Ukraine: What’s at Stake?

The EU’s “visa-free trade regime” with Ukraine—introduced in June 2022 to support the country during wartime—will expire on 5 June 2025. Known as the Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs), this policy suspended tariffs, quotas, and trade restrictions on Ukrainian exports. Its expiration could have a significant impact on Ukraine’s economy.

Is a Compromise Possible?

The European Commission states it is working on an alternative framework but hasn’t released any details. Ukraine is advocating for permanent trade liberalisation, and some signs of compromise are emerging, such as maintaining zero tariffs on Ukrainian steel after June. The restrictive policy towards Ukrainian agricultural exports seems rummy, as they account for less than 2% of the agricultural goods imported by EU countries.

€2.9 Billion in Exports at Risk

According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy, reverting to pre-2022 trade rules could cost Ukrainian exporters up to €2.9 billion annually, primarily impacting corn, wheat, poultry, sugar, and honey. Agriculture accounts for over 50% of Ukraine’s exports to the EU, representing a significant increase from 28% in 2021. Deputy Economy Minister Taras Kachka stated, “The ATMs were a lifeline. Their removal could cut nearly 1% from Ukraine's GDP.”

Ukrainian Exporters Already Losing Contracts

Ukrainian producers report that EU importers are withdrawing from deals ahead of the policy’s expiration. Honey exports, for instance, could decline by 30–40% this year. MHP, Ukraine’s largest poultry exporter, views the end of the regime as a significant setback.

The Bigger Picture looks grim

This isn’t just about trade; it’s about Ukraine’s economic survival and deeper integration with Europe. While the Trump administration is guided by commercial and political considerations in improving relations with Russia, it limits Ukraine's prospects for achieving a lasting and fair peace. The EU, in turn, prioritises the commercial interests of a relatively small group of farmers and food producers, neglecting the rapid food inflation for Europeans and the opportunity to economically support its strategic partner at a relatively low cost.