Four years of war — very different economic outcomes across the region

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has influenced the economic landscape across Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Comparing real GDP in 2025 with its 2021 level shows a striking divergence.

Ukraine remains the clear economic casualty, with real GDP still around 21% below its 2021 level. Estonia and Moldova also remained below their 2021 levels, while growth was modest across several other European economies.

At the other end of the spectrum, Kyrgyzstan (+47%), Georgia (+41%), Armenia (+38%), Uzbekistan (+30%) and Mongolia (+27%) recorded exceptionally strong growth.

The war alone does not explain these outcomes. But the post-2021 economic realignment has been profound: redirected trade flows, sanctions circumvention and re-exports helping Russia maintain access to foreign goods, relocation of businesses and capital, migration, and the emergence of new supply chains and commercial hubs.

The result is a markedly different economic geography around Russia — with clear winners and losers since 2021.