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- Ukrainian businesses invest despite the war
Fifty of Ukraine's largest private companies have invested over Eur 5 billion in their development since the full-scale Russian invasion. DTEK, Metinvest and MHP are the top three. Russia's invasion led to an avalanche-like decline in FDI inflows from $8 billion in 2021 to $221 million in 2022. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, last year, FDI rebounded to $4.8 billion, with most of this money reinvested by businesses already operating in the country. FDI per capita in Ukraine remains at the lowest level among Eastern European countries, as Ukraine’s foreign investment policy regime has been less liberalised than of its regional peers. The preconditions for FDI acceleration are the war's end, structural reforms, and NATO/EU security guarantees. While there is a high level of uncertainty about the first and the last, Ukraine has made meaningful progress in reforms over the previous ten years.
- Ukraine to attract massive foreign financing for reconstruction as soon as in 2025
In September, the Strategic Investment Council of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine approved the outline of the Project Portfolio for Public Investment. The portfolio includes 750 healthcare, education, transport, and energy investment projects worth over $55 billion. In 2025, the projects will attract around $5,6 billion, including about $4 billion of grants, state-backed loans, and guarantees from international financial organisations and donors. The major financial providers will be the EIB, EBRD, IBRD and foreign governments. The investment projects will be monitored through the publicly available integrated management system DREAM to ensure compliance and integrity during the selection, preparation and implementation. Entrypoint's team is proud to have been already engaged in preparing several reconstruction projects in construction and energy.
- Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power accelerate the country’s green transition
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector push the country to accelerate its transition to green and distributed energy solutions. The destruction of nearly 9 GW, or almost half of the electricity generation, opened the way to change the conventional post-soviet generation mix. In August, the Ukrainian Government approved the plan to set out the renewable energy development trajectories by sector until 2030. According to the plan, the share of renewable energy in gross energy consumption in 2030 will be 27%. Ukraine intends to switch from coal-powered thermal plants to a mix of renewables like wind, solar, and biofuels. A network of smaller gas-fired turbines will also be installed, less vulnerable to attack and capable of balancing daily peaks and valleys in electricity demand. In June, DTEK RES Group received technical conditions for connecting 650 MW of Poltava WPP and intends to invest there around one billion US dollars. In June, the Ukrainian group “OKKO” secured the EBRD's loan of €60 million for constructing a biofuel plant and the World Bank’s financing for building a 150 MW wind farm in Western Ukraine. Recently, the EBRD approved funding for the German GOLDBECK SOLAR , which targets the development of up to 500 MW of renewable projects in Ukraine. German company Notus Energy continues constructing a 300 MW wind farm in the Odessa region, with the first operational stage in 2025. After the government’s plans are implemented, “Ukraine will introduce a low-carbon energy system before many European countries,” said Kudritskiy, president of the national distribution grid, quoted by the WP.
- Ukraine uplifts maritime trade to relieve agribusiness
The Ukrainian foreign trade through the Black Sea ports is gaining momentum despite the ongoing war and Russian efforts to undermine it. In the first seven months of this year, Ukraine's seaports handled nearly 60 million tonnes of cargo , almost as much as in 2023. In July 2024, there was a significant surge in cargo turnover, with 7 million tonnes being transshipped, a figure that is 2.2 times higher than in 2023. This increase is a promising sign for the future of Ukrainian foreign trade. 4.2 million tonnes of agricultural products were exported to 46 countries. In 2021, before the Russian full-scale invasion, Ukrainian ports handled over 153 million tonnes of cargo: 118 million tonnes of exports and 24 million tonnes of imports; the rest was transit and cabotage. The war's impact on businesses, Russian blocage, and attacks on ships and Ukrainian transhipment terminals halved these volumes in 2022 and 2023 to 60 million tonnes annually. Many Ukrainian agribusinesses, including some of our clients, have had a painful season of 2022/2023. High logistic costs due to disruptions in maritime trade made their margins slim, if not negative. According to the benchmarking , key crops like corn and wheat had negative returns, while oilseeds provided some profitability.