Don’t Put All Your Eggs in One Basket
In 35 years, since independence in 1991, Ukrainian presidents have made 27 visits to the United States, compared with just 6 (six) to China.
No Ukrainian president has visited China since December 2013—almost 13 (!) years.
Random comparison. Since 1992, French presidents have made 31 visits to the United States and 17 to China. Turkey 15/6 (favour US), Kazakhstan 14/9 (favour China), etc.
To keep the US content and with the hope of getting security guarantees, Ukraine:
* Relinquished its nuclear weapons (1996).
* Transferred its remaining enriched uranium (2012), sufficient to produce a nuclear weapon.
* Committed to granting the US preferential opportunities in mineral resources (2025).
With China, the opposite was true. Yanukovych’s government defrauded Chinese state corporations of a couple of billion dollars through fraudulent grain trade arrangements and a railway project. This money was never returned, and London courts are still hearing the case. No big Chinese investments in Ukraine since then.
Today, Ukraine faces a particularly difficult strategic environment. The Trump administration’s rapprochement with Russia and its pressure on Ukraine to accept an unfavourable settlement have raised questions about the reliability of American support.
The EU and the United Kingdom remain Ukraine’s indispensable partners. However, their financial and military resources, as well as political weight and resolve, are insufficient to stop the war. European economic interests also create frictions over Ukrainian agricultural and industrial exports.
With two global superpowers, the US and China, Ukraine spent over three decades building a strategic partnership with Washington while downplaying the Chinese dimension.
Strategic diplomacy is about maintaining relationships, creating alternatives and developing additional channels of influence.
Ukraine’s position today would be stronger today if successive Ukrainian governments had invested more consistently in relations with China. It's a good lesson for the future.
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